If any good can come from great evil...

Through history, moments of great adversity have often increased the speed of adoption of transformative technologies. Wars have given us widespread availability of radar, sonar and reliable wireless communications, Katrina drove expansion of the use of social networking and other self-publishing tools, and so on.

Will one outcome of the horrors at Virginia Tech be a sea-change in the adoption of text messaging networks? VT will join other schools such as Penn State in offering students the ability to register for text messaging, via offerings from vendors such as Rave Wireless.

But that's really the tip of the iceberg. What we should be looking at is the widespread adoption of text messaging for up-to-the minute alerting of critical news based on affiliation or place-based context... if:

• Carriers re-think their pricing models, and abandon the usurious surcharges for text messaging (by the message or flat-rate) that maintain it as a niche product for youth. In countries where SMS is dirt-cheap, volume is high.
• Carriers (or messaging networks) work with public safety officials to create more global opt-ins for messaging about public safety issues such as, heavens forbid, the incident at VT, an upcoming tsunami, a major hazardous material spill, etc. We still sit through those tests of the emergency broadcast system on terrestrial radio, after all.

Omnilert and M/A-Com have offerings that have enjoyed limited uptake. Time to get rolling on more widespread adoption.

Monetizing Social Networks

Robert Young has an interesting post on GigaOm about monetizing social networks. His main prediction is that "social networks will prove themselves to be the most effective brand communication platforms on the Internet."  Robert continues on making four observations about better positioning social networks to make money.

1. Social network sites are bad platforms for call to action ads.
2. Social networks are people powered so advertising needs to be done with people not at people.
3. Social networks are too cluttered with ads. To increase CMPs you need to create scarcity.
4. Scalability is key; therefore, automation is critical.

As new and old media companies rush to fill the demand for social experiences online, monetization will decide which projects are successful.  I look forward to Turner's Super Deluxe as an example of applying the learnings of '06.

How to handle citizen marketers

Guy Kawasaki interviews Jackie Huba and Ben McConnell, authors of the new book "Citizen Marketers" and the blog "Church of the Consumer."

Guy asks the pair how companies should handle events like the Diet Coke-Mentos video.

Answer: There are three different ways to respond to amateur grassroots efforts like that:

1. Say nothing and let the citizen marketers have their time in the spotlight. It’s a safe and conservative approach.

2. Use your company website or blog to point to the citizen marketers in the spirit of “what people are saying about us.” This opens the door to ceding control, and that’s a good step. Just remember that citizen marketers don’t follow instructions. This approach requires company spokespeople to have a sense of humor. That wasn’t the case with the Coke, whose spokesperson was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as scolding people for not drinking their precious beverage!

3. Quickly build a program around what’s happening. It can be beneficial but also tricky because it can taint the grassroots nature of what’s happening. Keep it simple. The “firecracker” nature of something like Diet Coke and Mentos has a short half-life. Better to openly solicit ideas from the people or community involved and keep it simple. Follow the lead of the community. And keep the company lawyers locked in a cage.

Power of ideas: 3G vs. A really useful phone

InStat uses global research to address what they're calling common "half-truths" about 3G adoption. This analysis reinforces what we tend to see as a common occurrence (typified by Gartner's hype cycle) -- the trip from  the "peak of inflated expectations" to the "trough of disillusionment" is often based on the difference between the "idea" of the technology itself, and the "idea" for use that takes hold in the marketplace. So a few  folks want video, but more actually want GPS directions in real time on their phones... again, we learn, it's not really about 3G -- it's about new ways for phones to be useful.

Are you in touch with the user-driven idea for the technology you're busy rolling out?

Disruptive Technology: The Venice Project

Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis are surely the poster boys for disruptive technology.  The co-founders of KaZaA were basically on the run for most of the late 90's.  Then came Skype, which turned the telco world on its ear and was sold to eBay for "billions."

Not content to take a breather, the pair now plans to tackle television. In an interview with Om Malik, Janus Friis described The Venice Project: "What we have done is created a streaming P2P platform for television. This is a platform, which is good for content owners, for advertisers and of course the viewers. Since there are no borders on the Internet, this is a global platform."

In a bid to not be global criminals on the run, Janus says they will be respecting all copyrights. 

Bruno Giussani summarizes the offering:

• "streaming peer-to-peer television (near-TV quality)
• free to the user (just download the client software)
• ad-supported (with ad targeting)
• deals with content providers (revenue-share)
• time-shifted
• searchable
• with "social TV" features (tagging, recommendations, etc)"

In addition to the disruptive effect on the broadcast model, The Venice Project has major implications for marketers. Targeted ads with solid measurement could be the solution to the burning question of how to advertise on social networks.  Which could mean the timing of The Venice Project could not be better. 

Consider Bambi Fransisco's analysis of the percentage of advertising currently going to social networks: "Social networks are estimated to attract $280 million in ad dollars this year, according to eMarketer. Online video-sharing sites are estimated to attract about $385 million. EMarketer estimates that $15.9 billion will be spent in online advertisements in the U.S. this year. That means social networks and video-sharing sites only attract about 1.8% to 2.5% of total online ad spending."

Second Life crosses million user mark

According to the Second Life blog, in-world residents now number over 1 million.  Not only that, they expect to sign up 50,000 new user today alone.

Second Life has been in the news lately with a number of major brands moving in-world. Recently Wired Magazine, Reuters, Intel and IBM all revealed Second Life projects. Advertisers like BBH and Leo Burnett are also moving into the new space. From an article in the New York Times today called "A Virtual World but Real Money," there are over 30 companies now in-world with scores trying to figure out how and why to join.

The buzz around Second Life could not be much stronger. Many marketers may be searching for a little perspective. 

Second Life is not a game.

Think back to the original definition of cyberspace by William Gibson: "Cyberspace. A consensual hallucination experienced daily by billions of legitimate operators, in every nation, by children being taught mathematical concepts... A graphic representation of data abstracted from banks of every computer in the human system. Unthinkable complexity. Lines of light ranged in the nonspace of the mind, clusters and constellations of data. Like city lights, receding, (69)."

Second Life is a virtual location where people can meet to have conversations, make friends, create items, build buildings and make money.

Second Life is not free.

Well, its free to create a character but not to own land or build objects. Many brands choose to create islands so that their brand will not be influenced by other brands or residence's creations in close proximity.  A private island costs $1,250 to create and $195 per month to maintain, before construction begins.  While that is a drop in the bucket for major brand budgets, it still represents a commitment to exploring a new medium.

Second Life requires a fast computer and Internet connection.

Rendering out virtual worlds requires horsepower.  To really see texture details you need a good bit of video ram.  For today's gamer the graphics will look 5 years old. Second Life, as its is presented today, requires patience and a willingness to suspend desire for graphic quality found in most current games. 

With so much momentum its hard to predict what will happen next for Second Life.  However, the population of multi-player virtual environments continues to grow rapidly and marketers may find that the best place to engage consumers is in a world in which they are already immersed. (Chart from MMOG Chart)

Grasshopper, there is no kimono

It's become clear that a fundamental shift in thinking that needs to take place if marketers are to make the transition to a media 2.0 world. We've all heard (and probably said ourselves) expressions about "opening the kimono" and how the internet was the medium that required doing so -- well, true, but not far enough, because the entire concept retains media 1.0 artifacts of thought that can critically damage your brand -- as evidenced by the Walmart/Edelman "flog" fiasco.

In a 1.0 world, there is a "kimono" -- a veil of separation between your brand and your marketplace -- that marketers choose to open and close to varying degrees at various times and in various media. Marketers in effect wholly own their brands and play the role of geisha, cleverly and seductively showing a little ankle in order to entice markets into a branded relationship.

In a 2.0 world, it's clear that brands are co-owned with your markets. This isn't a new lesson -- the New Coke debacle/triumph (depending on where you are re that conspiracy theory) illustrated this concept years ago. New media vehicles just exacerbate the issue. When you have truly wrapped your head around co-ownership, you will find that you have very different notions about how to use these vehicles. 2.0 blogging for Walmart? Well, on the one hand, your brand co-owners will expect a highly authentic blog from Walmart leadership, addressing the real issues and opportunities facing the brand in the marketplace. Marketing campaigns that incorporate blogging are fine -- but are either openly "made up" -- think about an interactive ad campaign in which an obviously manufactured teen cartoon character blogs about back to school -- or "authentic" - in which, say, four real moms (and a single-parent dad) blog about getting their kids back to school and the real challenges they face. OK, these ideas are off the top of my head, but serve the purpose to illustrate the  principle at work here: wake up and smell the sake, folks -- there is no kimono.

NBC Universal's Five New Media Principles

NBC Universal's digital czar, Beth Comstock commented on how NBC is going to deal with the new media environment at Mipcom, a programing trade show.

She said NBC Universal needed to "create the best, most innovative content, get used to sharing control, tap the power of the community, develop a keen understanding of constantly changing consumer behavior and, finally get used to the idea that the media marketplace from now on is going to be full of contradictions and tensions."

The Adage article goes on to highlight the difficultie s facing media executives in keeping up with consumer behavior.  At THINK we realize the media environment is changing rapidly and we believe the only way to keep up with the behavior is to be a part of the "consumer-led republic."

Telling stories on blogs, making videos for YouTube and building characters and buildings in Second Life are just a few of the things we have been up to lately.  The best way to know the consumer is to be the consumer.

comScore Online Video Numbers

From the comScore press release:

More than 106.5 million people, or about 3 out of every 5 U.S. Internet users, streamed or downloaded video during the month of July.  In total, nearly 7.2 billion videos were streamed or downloaded by U.S. Internet users for an average of 67 streams per streamer, which means the typical video streamer viewed an average of more than two streams per day.

“The surge in Web video content enables advertisers to expand beyond banners and reach online audiences using sight, sound and motion,” said Erin Hunter, executive vice president of comScore’s Media and Entertainment Group.  “Fundamental to the effectiveness of online video as an advertising medium is an accurate measurement of streaming video – and comScore is delighted to be the first company to provide that capability to the marketplace.”

The typical U.S. streamer on MySpace initiated an average of 39 streams during the course of the month, or slightly more than one per day.  Yahoo! Sites ranked second in total streams initiated by U.S. users with 812 million, followed by YouTube with 649 million.